Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.239652e-05 0.000111 0.000132 0.000155 0.000181 0.000208 0.000240
2024-10-20 6.748785e-05 0.000091 0.000119 0.000151 0.000190 0.000232 0.000282
2024-10-27 5.515808e-05 0.000081 0.000113 0.000152 0.000199 0.000253 0.000319
2024-11-03 4.013865e-05 0.000066 0.000099 0.000142 0.000196 0.000259 0.000337
2024-11-10 3.637069e-05 0.000064 0.000101 0.000150 0.000213 0.000287 0.000380
2024-11-17 2.854738e-05 0.000056 0.000093 0.000146 0.000214 0.000297 0.000403
2024-11-24 2.190770e-05 0.000048 0.000085 0.000140 0.000212 0.000302 0.000418
2024-12-01 1.695903e-05 0.000042 0.000079 0.000136 0.000213 0.000310 0.000437
2024-12-08 1.325056e-05 0.000037 0.000074 0.000133 0.000214 0.000318 0.000456
2024-12-15 9.782551e-06 0.000031 0.000068 0.000128 0.000212 0.000322 0.000470
2024-12-22 7.621064e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000126 0.000215 0.000332 0.000490
2024-12-29 5.963116e-06 0.000025 0.000062 0.000126 0.000219 0.000343 0.000512
2025-01-05 3.713425e-06 0.000021 0.000059 0.000126 0.000228 0.000366 0.000558
2025-01-12 1.852529e-06 0.000017 0.000053 0.000122 0.000231 0.000383 0.000595
2025-01-19 9.961516e-07 0.000014 0.000051 0.000123 0.000241 0.000406 0.000642
2025-01-26 2.195521e-07 0.000010 0.000043 0.000114 0.000235 0.000409 0.000660
2025-02-02 1.159627e-07 0.000009 0.000044 0.000121 0.000253 0.000445 0.000724
2025-02-09 5.392050e-09 0.000007 0.000040 0.000118 0.000255 0.000458 0.000756
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000005 0.000035 0.000112 0.000253 0.000465 0.000780
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000004 0.000032 0.000109 0.000254 0.000476 0.000810
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000002 0.000029 0.000106 0.000256 0.000488 0.000841
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000002 0.000025 0.000102 0.000254 0.000496 0.000865
2025-03-16 NaN 0.000001 0.000024 0.000100 0.000258 0.000510 0.000900